Current Status of Ongoing COVID in India

Just when the pandemic phase of Covid-19 seemed to have entered a declining phase, lifting the mask mandate resulted in an increase in cases for several states, including Maharashtra, Mizoram, Kerala, Delhi, and Haryana. 

On April 13, 2022, Gurugram crossed its 100-mark of daily cases after over a month. There were 241 Covid cases reported on May 15, 2022. 

Similarly, Delhi saw an increase in cases from below 100 in March-end to 325 on April 14, 2022. One month after the rise in Covid cases, Delhi reported 613 fresh cases on May 15, 2022, taking the count of active cases to 3,762. 

In Mumbai, the cases rose almost three times, from 26 on April 11 to 73 on April 13. The city reported 151 fresh cases on May 15, 2022. 

The Union Health Secretary, Rajesh Bhushan, wrote to the government of these states, “It is essential that the state maintain a strict watch and take pre-emptive action if required in any areas of concern to control any emerging spread of infection.” 

On May 16, 2022, India reported 2,202 new Covid cases, bringing the country’s active cases to 17,317. The surge in cases has renewed the fear of the occurrence of the fourth wave, especially among health workers and doctors. While some experts believe the fourth wave of covid is coming in August 2022, others think it is unlikely.

Will There Be a Fourth Wave? 

After weeks of relief, India is yet again witnessing an upsurge in the daily Covid cases. The fresh rise in numbers has led to the worry about the possibility of a fourth wave in the country that just started returning to the pre-pandemic normal. In fact, India’s effective reproduction number (R) has increased to over 1 for the first time after January 2022, during the peak of the third wave. 

But what is an R-value? A country’s R-value indicates how quickly the infection is spreading. An R-value above 1 indicates that the number of active cases is rising. The value should be contained below 1 to stop the pandemic. While the R-value was 0.93 for the week between April 5 and 11, it increased to 1.07 between April 12 and 18. 

However, according to Dr. Gagandeep Kang, one of India’s top virologists, we are in a good place with a high level of vaccination. Also, India has a high level of infection in the population acquired during the previous waves. 

Moreover, the rise in cases elsewhere is caused by an easily spread sub-variant of Omicron known as BA.2. But, in February, Indian scientists' sampling sequences reported that BA.2 was already the dominant strain during India’s Omicron surge, which appears to be over.  

Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a physician epidemiologist, says, “The possibility of a large-scale nationwide wave of infections in India in the near future is very low.”

What is the Current Vaccination Status in the Country?

The vaccination programme in India has been successfully implemented in phases, starting from January 16 and February 2 last year for healthcare and frontline workers, respectively. The next phase commenced on March 1, 2021, for people over 60 years of age and those aged 40 and above with specified comorbid conditions. The country launched vaccination on April 1, 2021, for all people above 45 years. On May 1, 2021, the programme was thrown open to all adults in the country. 

According to the Union Health Ministry, the cumulative number of vaccine doses for Covid-19 administered in the country crossed 191 crores on May 16, 2022. However, vaccine inequity remains an issue in India, where less than 2 per cent of the total population has received the Covid booster shot. 

As rightly mentioned by Johns Hopkins scientist Amita Gupta, as immunities decline and new variants of Covid become known, it is more crucial than ever that the communities are fully vaccinated and boosted. Tracking hospitalisation rates, she further stressed that no one is safe from Covid until everyone in the world gets vaccinated. 

Bottom Line

While it may have looked like we kicked the Covid-19 pandemic to the curb, it is still a long way to go. People believed the worst to be over and misunderstood the mandatory use of masks. If people continue to avoid the appropriate Covid-19 guidelines, the country may experience the next wave soon. 

So put back on the masks, adhere to social distancing norms and protect yourself against the infection. 

Testing and screening remain crucial to treat the virus and stop its spread and evaluation. So if you want to get RT-PCR tests done, the 1,000+ specialists at HexaHealth are here to provide excellent healthcare services for people infected with Covid-19.